Saturday, June 14, 2008

make pollution visible, make it smell

Here is a simple idea to tackle carbon emissions - make them visible and unpleasant.

I know California has some tough smog standards, but even then I find it amazing that air is clear and pretty fresh here in the Bay Area. You could be right in the middle of a commute hour grind on Highway 101, and still not really smell the pollution the cars are spewing out.

So I don't really worry about it.

Imagine that the exhaust from your car is black and smells like a dump. I bet you'll notice that pretty soon. I bet everyone will notice the amount of this stuff they are contributing.

But it'll be so unpleasant, we won't like it. It'll never happen, not just for that reason, but more so because we'll need the oil companies to cooperate to make it work, and I don't expect them to be bending over their backs to implement this.

I still like this idea though. A very effective way to influence people's behavior will be to give them immediate and appropriate feedback. Incentives are nice, but they go only so far. A little bit of in-your-face disincentive may work better.

Sunday, June 01, 2008

I love these asset bubbles!

I consider the timing of, first the stock market bubble, and then the US housing bubble and the alleged other asset bubbles (commodities, oil, you name it) that are going on right now to be a tremendous blessing for me and my generation.

Imagine being bitten by these a decade or more from now, when, in the middle of our lives and careers, we see a chunk of our lives' savings evaporate into thin air.

By being exposed to these surprises relatively early in our adult lives, I think we have a great opportunity to learn the right lessons and become wise. So by the next time when there is a Robotics bubble or a Near Earth Orbit Real Estate bubble, we'll play that market like the veterans we will be. I can't wait!

But wait a minute: did a gullible green-horn say this back in 2005: "A DESTABILIZING contraction in nationwide house prices does not seem the most probable outcome...nominal house prices in the aggregate have rarely fallen and certainly not by very much." It was none other than the maestro octogenarian Alan Greenspan.

Mm, so much for age and wisdom.